2月万事达卡财新BBD中国新经济指数升至31.1
发布日期:2022-03-02 10:00:38
主要由劳动力和科技投入上升拉动;发生过较大规模本土疫情的城市中,宁波、长春、绍兴、大连的线上线下消费,能够较快恢复至疫情前水平,扬州、兰州、石家庄、乌鲁木齐、西安等恢复较慢
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【财新网】受劳动力、科技投入上升等影响,2022年2月万事达卡财新BBD中国新经济指数(NEI)有所回升。

  财新智库和BBD(数联铭品)3月2日联合发布的数据显示,2月NEI录得31.1,即新经济投入占整个经济投入的比重为31.1%,较上月上升1.6百分点。

  NEI包括劳动力、资本和科技三项一级指标,权重分别是40%、35%和25%。其中,劳动力投入指数录得26.3,较上月上升3.7;科技投入指数录得28.7,环比上升2.2;资本投入指数则录得38.5,下降0.9。

  NEI劳动一级指标包含两项二级指标:新经济行业人员薪酬比例和岗位比例。2月工资占比和就业占比大幅上升,贡献了当月NEI的主要环比增幅。

  分行业看,2月新一代信息技术与信息服务产业为总指数贡献9.2个百分点,较上月上升0.5个百分点;节能与环保业对总指数的贡献涨幅较大,上涨2.9个百分点,主要来自该行业招标占比的上升。

  2月新经济行业入职平均工资水平为每月13254元,较上月上升12元,高于全国平均入职工资水平4.6%,溢价水平较上月上升0.4个百分点。

  报告观察过去两年间发生过较大规模本土疫情的14个城市,对比分析其消费在疫情后的恢复速度。

  从线下消费来看,发生过百人左右疫情的城市中,宁波和长春从疫情中的恢复速度较快,分别在21天和35天后就恢复了线下人流量;而兰州的线下人流量恢复较慢,疫情后三个月都未能够达到疫情前水平。

  在数百人及以上的疫情中,北京线下人流量恢复最快,仅在疫情后31天就恢复到疫情前水平,而此时的北京甚至还未清零中风险地区。报告称,这与北京疫情暴发较为集中有很大关系,疫情确诊病例基本都与新发地农贸市场相关,确定风险更为容易;同时,北京占地面积较大,局部疫情仅对丰台区人流量有所影响。

  其他地区面临数百人疫情时,初期发现就已经进入社区感染状态,需要的防控力度更大,线下人流量恢复较为缓慢。大连、扬州与南京分别在疫情后58天、61天和73天恢复至疫情前水平。而厦门、石家庄、乌鲁木齐线下人流量在疫情后三个月仅恢复至疫情前80%左右的水平。

  线上消费的恢复速度普遍快于线下消费。在百人左右的疫情中,宁波、长春两地从疫情中的恢复速度最快,分别在28天和29天后就恢复了线上消费水平;其次是大连和郑州,均为38天;哈尔滨和兰州在线上消费的恢复方面表现不尽如人意。在数百人及以上的疫情中,绍兴仅用了35天便恢复了疫情前的线上消费水平;大连、厦门、扬州和北京线上消费恢复至疫情前水平所用时间分别为50天、51天、76天、76天;南京、石家庄、乌鲁木齐和西安的线上消费则在三个月内未能完全恢复。

  综合累计确诊数量、清零时间、线上与线下消费的恢复时间,报告将以上14个城市分为三类:第一类为能够较快从疫情中恢复的城市,包括宁波、长春、绍兴、大连;第二类为恢复时间中等的城市,包括北京、郑州、厦门、哈尔滨、南京;第三类为恢复速度较慢的城市,包括扬州、兰州、石家庄、乌鲁木齐、西安。

  报告根据2021年社会消费品零售总额、实物商品网上零售额等数据,估算一次大规模疫情导致当地全年消费的损失。经测算,能够较快从疫情中恢复的城市消费受到的影响较小,例如北京一次大规模疫情导致当地消费损失3.0%;而恢复较慢的城市如扬州,在一次大规模疫情后,消费损失10.3%。

  “一轮疫情、一次防控,对当地的线上、线下消费均有巨大影响。如何从第一类城市中获取经验、从第三类城市中得到教训,将是应对疫情的新阶段中的重要功课。”报告称。

  分地区看,2021年8月至2022年2月,北京、杭州、南京、深圳、长沙在城市NEI平均排名中位列前五名。

  万事达卡财新BBD中国新经济指数,是由财新智库、成都数联铭品科技公司与北京大学国家发展研究院合作研发,每月2日上午10:00发布上月数据。

  新经济指数旨在度量中国经济转型中新经济相对于传统经济或旧经济的活跃程度。新经济指数覆盖了节能环保、新一代信息技术与信息服务、生物医药、高端装备制造、新能源、新材料、新能源汽车、高新技术服务与研发、现代金融与法律服务、体育文化和娱乐等10个类别、145个细分行业。

  附:2022年02月NEI报告(中文版/英文版

  访问财新指数库,查看更多内容

 
 
 

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  推荐进入财新数据库,可随时查阅全球及中国宏观经济数据库(CEIC)及相关指数库。]

 

 
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